Al Qaeda's battle for hearts and minds

Asia Times Online
10 November 2005

Al-Qaeda's battle for hearts and minds
By Ehsan Ahrari

No one can claim that al-Qaeda is not watching the twists and turns
of the debates related to global terrorism that are currently being
waged in the United States and the Muslim world. The 9-11
Commission's report popularized the argument by recommending to the
Bush administration that it must wage a war of ideas to win the
hearts and minds of Muslims.

Al-Qaeda's chief theoretician, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has incorporated
this concept in his own enduring campaign against the United States.
He has been busy in the past few months publicizing al-Qaeda's
perspectives to the Muslim world and to the West in particular.

In this regard, one has to consider Zawahiri's recent appeal for aid
for the victims of the massive earthquake in South Asia, and in
particular Pakistan-administered Kashmir. There is clear urgency for
help: more than 80,000 people have died, and many millions have been
made homeless in the remote area.

The poor response of the international community to the greatest
human tragedy in Pakistan's history is quite apparent. What is even
more tragic is the tepid response of the Middle Eastern oil
monarchies, whose treasuries are brimming. The United Arab Emirates
and Kuwait offered $100 million each, while Saudi Arabia offered $133
million. Kuwait went to the extent of publicizing its $500 million
aid to Hurricane Katrina victims in the US, but comes up with a
relatively measly $100 million for the victims of Kashmir.

Turkey has been an exception to the general miserly response of
Muslim countries. Only one day after the earthquake, the government
in Ankara responded by sending search and rescue teams and food and
other aid to Pakistan. It followed up by sending $150 million in aid.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first foreign
dignitary to visit the earthquake-devastated area, where he observed,
"My wish is this - the world is using resources for armaments, they
should also put aside resources for such disasters."

The poor response of the international community to the victims of
Kashmir was underscored by the United Nations saying that it had
received only 27% of the $312 million of its flash appeal for quake
relief - compared with 80% pledged within 10 days of a similar appeal
to international donors after the tsunami of December 26.

The government of Pakistan's own response to this massive human
tragedy has also been described as slow and inadequate. One leader of
Pakistan-administered Kashmir stated, "It's a shame as the government
on the other side [Indian-administered Kashmir] acted promptly and
provided relief and rescue in all the affected areas ... People are
angry here as they think Islamabad has double standards, even in
handling natural disasters."

What about the Islamist organizations of Pakistan; how did they
respond? The same Kashmir leader told Reuters, "The jihadi groups are
more sincerely taking part in relief operations. Those groups, which
were branded bad by the government, are no doubt doing well and will
influence people's sympathy in the future."

A number of earthquake victims attested to this reality by stating
that the only prompt help they have gotten has been from Islamist
groups. (See Asia Times Online Waging jihad against disaster, October
20.) Even Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf agreed with
the performance of the Islamist groups related to post-earthquake
assistance.

Examine the above realities from the perspective of al-Qaeda's
version of public diplomacy. Considering the publicity given by the
Western media to all statements that al-Qaeda issues, Zawahiri's
appeal for aid for Pakistani victims was heard all over the world.

The immediate danger that this appeal poses is to Musharraf's own
regime. Here is a president who has cast the fate of his government
by siding with President George W Bush's "war on terror". Then he
started waging his own war on al-Qaeda and the Islamist/jihadi forces
inside his country. Yet, from America's point of view, he has not
done enough.

Secondly, in his own hour of dire need, at least the way he described
it to the BBC, his government did not receive adequate assistance.
According to Musharraf, the reason for such an inadequate Western
response is that no Western victims were involved, as they were in
the tsunami-related catastrophe.

In a number of Western countries, the rejoinder to Musharraf's
criticism followed two general themes. First, the poor response has
something to do with a general aid-related fatigue in the West,
because the world has been experiencing a series of mega-human
calamities. Second, a question is also being raised about why oil-
rich Muslim states aren't coming to the rescue by creating about a
billion-dollar aid mechanism, especially at a time when prices oil
prices are so high.

Al-Qaeda is having a field day watching the community of nations
perform so deplorably in regard to the human tragedy in Pakistan. It
can, quite effectively, underscore three perspectives. First, that
the illegitimacy of current Muslim governments in the wake of their
failure to come to the rescue of a Muslim tragedy of epic proportions
does not require any further debate, from the perspectives of al-Qaeda.

Second, the seeming lack of Western concern only underscores al-
Qaeda's claim that the West does not really care about what happens
to Muslims, as long as the compliant and sycophant Muslim regimes
continue to preside over the political status that ensures the
dominance of the West. Third, given the preceding two reasons, al-
Qaeda's own unrelenting insistence on the violent overthrow of all
extant Muslim regimes is further established, at least in the minds
of everyone who is mildly sympathetic to that organization's criticisms.

What emerges from the preceding is a transnational pan-jihadi entity
carefully studying the twists and turns of the US and Western
responses to countering terrorism and coming up with its own
countermeasures.

Despite the dismantlement of the Taliban regime, al-Qaeda knows that
the battle for control of Afghanistan has barely begun. It will
continue its guerrilla-type skirmishes with US-led and Afghan forces.
But the most important concomitant battle is to influence the hearts
and minds of the Muslims of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
A weak Afghanistan remains under constant threat of major political
turbulence. At the same time, an unstable Pakistan serves as an even
more significant target than Afghanistan. The centers of gravity to
win its war against the "enemies of Islam" - a phrase that al-Qaeda
uses to depict all forces that oppose it and its objectives - are
located in those two countries.

All it must do is keep the focus of rhetorical barrages on all Muslim
tragedies and grievances and persistently highlight the sustained
ineptness of the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan. A highly
charged environment thus created would be vastly conducive to even
greater instability in the region. That is the essence of al-Qaeda's
battle to win the hearts and minds of Muslims, not only in South
Asia, but also in the rest of the world of Islam.

Ehsan Ahrari is a CEO of Strategic Paradigms, an Alexandria, VA-based
defense consultancy. He can be reached at eahrari@cox.net or
stratparadigms@yahoo.com. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times
Online His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.

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